
        Dropoff for State Assembly vote in Assembly District 76

Summary

        An analysis of dropoff (not  voting for all  the races on  the
ballot) was  done for the 76th  Assembly District for the 1992 General
Election.  Precincts where the actual number of voters matched closely
to the polling place voters  as recorded by  the county registrar were
selected to  analyze factors which would lead to voters not voting for
the  assembly race.  The most  important factors which were correlated
with dropoff for the assembly race were age of the registrant (18-35),
and whether they had been registered in the last two years, a  pattern
which held for both parties.  Education and income also had an effect,
with  increasing amounts of  both  producing less dropoff.  Efforts to
improve ballot completion  in the 18-35 groups would seem to hold  the
greatest  prospect for  increasing  participation in the assembly race
among those voters who actually go to the polls.

Distribution of Dropoff in precincts

        The table below gives the distribution of dropoff in the below
precints.  The average dropoff in a precinct is about seven percent.

                                                        Valid     Cum
Value Label                 Value  Frequency  Percent  Percent  Percent

                               1         2       .8       .8       .8
                               2         2       .8       .8      1.6
                               3        13      5.1      5.1      6.7
                               4        33     13.0     13.0     19.7
                               5        48     18.9     18.9     38.6
                               6        46     18.1     18.1     56.7
                               7        35     13.8     13.8     70.5
                               8        43     16.9     16.9     87.4
                               9        14      5.5      5.5     92.9
                              10         8      3.1      3.1     96.1
                              11         5      2.0      2.0     98.0
                              12         2       .8       .8     98.8
                              13         1       .4       .4     99.2
                              14         1       .4       .4     99.6
                              17         1       .4       .4    100.0
                                     -------  -------  -------
                            Total       254    100.0    100.0


               Universe              All
            of 254 precincts      Precincts
              in AD76

          Average     Total     Average    Total
           Vote        Vote      Vote       Vote

ASSDEM      246.98    62733      272.00    85408
ASSREP      145.85    37045      175.89    55230
ASSPAF       10.08     2561       11.11     3488
ASSLIB       15.05     3823       17.09     5366
ASSABS       31.20     7924       42.06    13207

Best  (current,  subject to revision) guess  as to dropoff in  certain
groups in the Assembly Race:

                                        Didn't
                              Voted      Vote
                             in Race    in Race

Democrats 18-35               90.28      9.72
Republicans 18-35             83.31     16.69
Democrats greater than 35     96.09      3.91
Independents greater than 35  90.70      9.30
Republicans greater than 35   97.07      2.93
                              -----     -----
                              93.01      6.99

        Variables  most correlated with not  voting  for  any Assembly
Candidate   (dropoff   in  the  Assembly  Race).   These  are  pearson
correlation coefficients.

.6266     Democratic female 18-35
.6066     Republican male 18-35
.5730     Democratic male 18-35
.5558     Republican female 18-35
.5344     Republican registered in last two years (91-92)
.5270     Democrat registered in last two years (91-92)
.4686     Independent male 18-35
.4479     Independent female 18-35
.4109     Republican registered three to four years ago (89-90)
.2725     Democrat registered three to four years ago (89-90)
.2086     Percent earning $5,000 to $9,999
.2011     Percent hispanic democrats
.2002     Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Administrative support
.1976     Percent earning Less than $5,000
.1931     Percent Service occupations - Other
.1816     Percent low income
.1760     Percent Male - Worked in 1989
.1701     Percent Female - Worked in 1989
.1617     Percent earning $12,500 to $14,999
.1446     Percent earning $10,000 to $12,499
.1314     Percent with Associate degree
.1089     Percent earning $32,500 to $34,999
.1066     Percent laborer
.1034     Percent with Less than 9th grade
.0933     Percent earning $25,000 to $27,499
.0885     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Handlers, clean, help & labor
.0869     Percent earning $15,000 to $17,499
.0862     Percent earning $22,500 to $24,999
.0858     Percent earning $35,000 to $37,499
.0806     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Trans and material moving
.0799     Percent Farming, forestry and fishing occupations
.0753     Percent earning $17,500 to $19,999
.0680     Percent earning $30,000 to $32,499
.0666     Percent with Bachelor's degree
.0600     Percent earning $20,000 to $22,499
.0596     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Ops, assmbly and inspection
.0442     Percent with 9th to 12th grade, no diploma
.0056     Percent Service occupations - Private household occupations
.0048     Percent earning $42,500 to $44,999

        Variables   most  correlated  with  voting  for  any  Assembly
Candidate  (no  dropoff  in  the  Assembly  Race).  These are  pearson
correlation coefficients.

-.4566     Republican male Age unknown
-.4264     Republican female Age unknown
-.3935     Democratic male Age unknown
-.3757     Independent female Age unknown
-.3744     Democratic female Age unknown
-.3327     Independent male Age unknown
-.3206     Independent male 36-55
-.3167     Republican registered more than eight years ago (84 and before)
-.2907     Independent female 36-55
-.2867     Percent earning $150,000 or more
-.2689     Democratic female 36-55
-.2673     Percent earning $100,000 to $124,999
-.2631     Republican male 56 plus
-.2441     Democrat registered more than eight years ago (84 and before)
-.2429     Republican registered seven to eight years ago (85-86)
-.2308     Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Executive, admin and mgmt
-.2273     Independent male 56 plus
-.2094     Percent Female - Did not work in 1989
-.2017     Democratic male 36-55
-.1903     Percent manager
-.1900     Democrat registered seven to eight years ago (85-86)
-.1879     Percent high income
-.1859     Republican female 36-55
-.1710     Democratic male 56 plus
-.1648     Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Professional specialty
-.1645     Percent earning $55,000 to $59,999
-.1623     Percent Male - Did not work in 1989
-.1455     Percent earning $50,000 to $54,999
-.1410     Percent earning $125,000 to $149,999
-.1323     Republican male 36-55
-.1276     Democrat registered five to six years ago (87-88)
-.1141     Percent with Graduate or professional degree
-.1126     Republican female 56 plus
-.1029     Republican registered five to six years ago (87-88)
-.1015     Percent earning $47,500 to $49,999
-.0978     Percent earning $75,000 to $99,999
-.0958     Percent with Some college, no degree
-.0817     Percent earning $27,500 to $29,999
-.0805     Percent Service occupations - Protective service occupations
-.0674     Independent female 56 plus
-.0663     Democratic female 56 plus
-.0463     Percent with High school graduate (includes equivalency)
-.0350     Percent earning $45,000 to $47,499
-.0213     Percent Precision production, craft and repair occupations
-.0211     Percent earning $40,000 to $42,499
-.0099     Percent earning $60,000 to $74,999
-.0057     Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Sales occupations
-.0051     Percent earning $37,500 to $39,999

********************************************************************************

        Variables by theme  assoicated with  dropoff (minus sign means
negative correlation with dropoff, otherwise positive correlation with
dropoff).

Work variables
   .1760     Percent Male - Worked in 1989
  -.1623     Percent Male - Did not work in 1989
   .1701     Percent Female - Worked in 1989
  -.2094     Percent Female - Did not work in 1989

Occupation variables
  -.1903     Percent manager
  -.2308     Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Executive, admin and mgmt
  -.1648     Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Professional specialty
  -.0057     Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Sales occupations
   .2002     Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Administrative support
   .1066     Percent laborer
   .0056     Percent Service occupations - Private household occupations
  -.0805     Percent Service occupations - Protective service occupations
   .1931     Percent Service occupations - Other
   .0799     Percent Farming, forestry and fishing occupations
  -.0213     Percent Precision production, craft and repair occupations
   .0596     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Ops, assmbly and inspection
   .0806     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Trans and material moving
   .0885     Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Handlers, clean, help & labor

Education variables
   .1034     Percent with Less than 9th grade
   .0442     Percent with 9th to 12th grade, no diploma
  -.0463     Percent with High school graduate (includes equivalency)
  -.0958     Percent with Some college, no degree
   .1314     Percent with Associate degree
   .0666     Percent with Bachelor's degree
  -.1141     Percent with Graduate or professional degree

Income variables
   .1816     Percent low income
   .1976     Percent earning Less than $5,000
   .2086     Percent earning $5,000 to $9,999
   .1446     Percent earning $10,000 to $12,499
   .1617     Percent earning $12,500 to $14,999
   .0869     Percent earning $15,000 to $17,499
   .0753     Percent earning $17,500 to $19,999
   .0600     Percent earning $20,000 to $22,499
   .0862     Percent earning $22,500 to $24,999
   .0933     Percent earning $25,000 to $27,499
  -.0817     Percent earning $27,500 to $29,999
   .0680     Percent earning $30,000 to $32,499
   .1089     Percent earning $32,500 to $34,999
   .0858     Percent earning $35,000 to $37,499
  -.0051     Percent earning $37,500 to $39,999
  -.0211     Percent earning $40,000 to $42,499
   .0048     Percent earning $42,500 to $44,999
  -.0350     Percent earning $45,000 to $47,499
  -.1015     Percent earning $47,500 to $49,999
  -.1879     Percent high income
  -.1455     Percent earning $50,000 to $54,999
  -.1645     Percent earning $55,000 to $59,999
  -.0099     Percent earning $60,000 to $74,999
  -.0978     Percent earning $75,000 to $99,999
  -.2673     Percent earning $100,000 to $124,999
  -.1410     Percent earning $125,000 to $149,999
  -.2867     Percent earning $150,000 or more

Latino Registration
   .2011     Percent hispanic democrats

Party Sex Age Breakdowns
   .5730     Democratic male 18-35
  -.2017     Democratic male 36-55
  -.1710     Democratic male 56 plus
  -.3935     Democratic male Age unknown
   .6266     Democratic female 18-35
  -.2689     Democratic female 36-55
  -.0663     Democratic female 56 plus
  -.3744     Democratic female Age unknown
   .4686     Independent male 18-35
  -.3206     Independent male 36-55
  -.2273     Independent male 56 plus
  -.3327     Independent male Age unknown
   .4479     Independent female 18-35
  -.2907     Independent female 36-55
  -.0674     Independent female 56 plus
  -.3757     Independent female Age unknown
   .6066     Republican male 18-35
  -.1323     Republican male 36-55
  -.2631     Republican male 56 plus
  -.4566     Republican male Age unknown
   .5558     Republican female 18-35
  -.1859     Republican female 36-55
  -.1126     Republican female 56 plus
  -.4264     Republican female Age unknown

Breakdown by party and length of registration
   .5270     Democrat registered in last two years (91-92)
   .2725     Democrat registered three to four years ago (89-90)
  -.1276     Democrat registered five to six years ago (87-88)
  -.1900     Democrat registered seven to eight years ago (85-86)
  -.2441     Democrat registered more than eight years ago (84 and before)
   .5344     Republican registered in last two years (91-92)
   .4109     Republican registered three to four years ago (89-90)
  -.1029     Republican registered five to six years ago (87-88)
  -.2429     Republican registered seven to eight years ago (85-86)
  -.3167     Republican registered more than eight years ago (84 and before)


