Dropoff for State Assembly vote in Assembly District 76 Summary An analysis of dropoff (not voting for all the races on the ballot) was done for the 76th Assembly District for the 1992 General Election. Precincts where the actual number of voters matched closely to the polling place voters as recorded by the county registrar were selected to analyze factors which would lead to voters not voting for the assembly race. The most important factors which were correlated with dropoff for the assembly race were age of the registrant (18-35), and whether they had been registered in the last two years, a pattern which held for both parties. Education and income also had an effect, with increasing amounts of both producing less dropoff. Efforts to improve ballot completion in the 18-35 groups would seem to hold the greatest prospect for increasing participation in the assembly race among those voters who actually go to the polls. Distribution of Dropoff in precincts The table below gives the distribution of dropoff in the below precints. The average dropoff in a precinct is about seven percent. Valid Cum Value Label Value Frequency Percent Percent Percent 1 2 .8 .8 .8 2 2 .8 .8 1.6 3 13 5.1 5.1 6.7 4 33 13.0 13.0 19.7 5 48 18.9 18.9 38.6 6 46 18.1 18.1 56.7 7 35 13.8 13.8 70.5 8 43 16.9 16.9 87.4 9 14 5.5 5.5 92.9 10 8 3.1 3.1 96.1 11 5 2.0 2.0 98.0 12 2 .8 .8 98.8 13 1 .4 .4 99.2 14 1 .4 .4 99.6 17 1 .4 .4 100.0 ------- ------- ------- Total 254 100.0 100.0 Universe All of 254 precincts Precincts in AD76 Average Total Average Total Vote Vote Vote Vote ASSDEM 246.98 62733 272.00 85408 ASSREP 145.85 37045 175.89 55230 ASSPAF 10.08 2561 11.11 3488 ASSLIB 15.05 3823 17.09 5366 ASSABS 31.20 7924 42.06 13207 Best (current, subject to revision) guess as to dropoff in certain groups in the Assembly Race: Didn't Voted Vote in Race in Race Democrats 18-35 90.28 9.72 Republicans 18-35 83.31 16.69 Democrats greater than 35 96.09 3.91 Independents greater than 35 90.70 9.30 Republicans greater than 35 97.07 2.93 ----- ----- 93.01 6.99 Variables most correlated with not voting for any Assembly Candidate (dropoff in the Assembly Race). These are pearson correlation coefficients. .6266 Democratic female 18-35 .6066 Republican male 18-35 .5730 Democratic male 18-35 .5558 Republican female 18-35 .5344 Republican registered in last two years (91-92) .5270 Democrat registered in last two years (91-92) .4686 Independent male 18-35 .4479 Independent female 18-35 .4109 Republican registered three to four years ago (89-90) .2725 Democrat registered three to four years ago (89-90) .2086 Percent earning $5,000 to $9,999 .2011 Percent hispanic democrats .2002 Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Administrative support .1976 Percent earning Less than $5,000 .1931 Percent Service occupations - Other .1816 Percent low income .1760 Percent Male - Worked in 1989 .1701 Percent Female - Worked in 1989 .1617 Percent earning $12,500 to $14,999 .1446 Percent earning $10,000 to $12,499 .1314 Percent with Associate degree .1089 Percent earning $32,500 to $34,999 .1066 Percent laborer .1034 Percent with Less than 9th grade .0933 Percent earning $25,000 to $27,499 .0885 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Handlers, clean, help & labor .0869 Percent earning $15,000 to $17,499 .0862 Percent earning $22,500 to $24,999 .0858 Percent earning $35,000 to $37,499 .0806 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Trans and material moving .0799 Percent Farming, forestry and fishing occupations .0753 Percent earning $17,500 to $19,999 .0680 Percent earning $30,000 to $32,499 .0666 Percent with Bachelor's degree .0600 Percent earning $20,000 to $22,499 .0596 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Ops, assmbly and inspection .0442 Percent with 9th to 12th grade, no diploma .0056 Percent Service occupations - Private household occupations .0048 Percent earning $42,500 to $44,999 Variables most correlated with voting for any Assembly Candidate (no dropoff in the Assembly Race). These are pearson correlation coefficients. -.4566 Republican male Age unknown -.4264 Republican female Age unknown -.3935 Democratic male Age unknown -.3757 Independent female Age unknown -.3744 Democratic female Age unknown -.3327 Independent male Age unknown -.3206 Independent male 36-55 -.3167 Republican registered more than eight years ago (84 and before) -.2907 Independent female 36-55 -.2867 Percent earning $150,000 or more -.2689 Democratic female 36-55 -.2673 Percent earning $100,000 to $124,999 -.2631 Republican male 56 plus -.2441 Democrat registered more than eight years ago (84 and before) -.2429 Republican registered seven to eight years ago (85-86) -.2308 Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Executive, admin and mgmt -.2273 Independent male 56 plus -.2094 Percent Female - Did not work in 1989 -.2017 Democratic male 36-55 -.1903 Percent manager -.1900 Democrat registered seven to eight years ago (85-86) -.1879 Percent high income -.1859 Republican female 36-55 -.1710 Democratic male 56 plus -.1648 Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Professional specialty -.1645 Percent earning $55,000 to $59,999 -.1623 Percent Male - Did not work in 1989 -.1455 Percent earning $50,000 to $54,999 -.1410 Percent earning $125,000 to $149,999 -.1323 Republican male 36-55 -.1276 Democrat registered five to six years ago (87-88) -.1141 Percent with Graduate or professional degree -.1126 Republican female 56 plus -.1029 Republican registered five to six years ago (87-88) -.1015 Percent earning $47,500 to $49,999 -.0978 Percent earning $75,000 to $99,999 -.0958 Percent with Some college, no degree -.0817 Percent earning $27,500 to $29,999 -.0805 Percent Service occupations - Protective service occupations -.0674 Independent female 56 plus -.0663 Democratic female 56 plus -.0463 Percent with High school graduate (includes equivalency) -.0350 Percent earning $45,000 to $47,499 -.0213 Percent Precision production, craft and repair occupations -.0211 Percent earning $40,000 to $42,499 -.0099 Percent earning $60,000 to $74,999 -.0057 Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Sales occupations -.0051 Percent earning $37,500 to $39,999 ******************************************************************************** Variables by theme assoicated with dropoff (minus sign means negative correlation with dropoff, otherwise positive correlation with dropoff). Work variables .1760 Percent Male - Worked in 1989 -.1623 Percent Male - Did not work in 1989 .1701 Percent Female - Worked in 1989 -.2094 Percent Female - Did not work in 1989 Occupation variables -.1903 Percent manager -.2308 Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Executive, admin and mgmt -.1648 Percent Managerial and prof specialty - Professional specialty -.0057 Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Sales occupations .2002 Percent Tech, sales and admin support - Administrative support .1066 Percent laborer .0056 Percent Service occupations - Private household occupations -.0805 Percent Service occupations - Protective service occupations .1931 Percent Service occupations - Other .0799 Percent Farming, forestry and fishing occupations -.0213 Percent Precision production, craft and repair occupations .0596 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Ops, assmbly and inspection .0806 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Trans and material moving .0885 Percent Ops, fabricators & laborers - Handlers, clean, help & labor Education variables .1034 Percent with Less than 9th grade .0442 Percent with 9th to 12th grade, no diploma -.0463 Percent with High school graduate (includes equivalency) -.0958 Percent with Some college, no degree .1314 Percent with Associate degree .0666 Percent with Bachelor's degree -.1141 Percent with Graduate or professional degree Income variables .1816 Percent low income .1976 Percent earning Less than $5,000 .2086 Percent earning $5,000 to $9,999 .1446 Percent earning $10,000 to $12,499 .1617 Percent earning $12,500 to $14,999 .0869 Percent earning $15,000 to $17,499 .0753 Percent earning $17,500 to $19,999 .0600 Percent earning $20,000 to $22,499 .0862 Percent earning $22,500 to $24,999 .0933 Percent earning $25,000 to $27,499 -.0817 Percent earning $27,500 to $29,999 .0680 Percent earning $30,000 to $32,499 .1089 Percent earning $32,500 to $34,999 .0858 Percent earning $35,000 to $37,499 -.0051 Percent earning $37,500 to $39,999 -.0211 Percent earning $40,000 to $42,499 .0048 Percent earning $42,500 to $44,999 -.0350 Percent earning $45,000 to $47,499 -.1015 Percent earning $47,500 to $49,999 -.1879 Percent high income -.1455 Percent earning $50,000 to $54,999 -.1645 Percent earning $55,000 to $59,999 -.0099 Percent earning $60,000 to $74,999 -.0978 Percent earning $75,000 to $99,999 -.2673 Percent earning $100,000 to $124,999 -.1410 Percent earning $125,000 to $149,999 -.2867 Percent earning $150,000 or more Latino Registration .2011 Percent hispanic democrats Party Sex Age Breakdowns .5730 Democratic male 18-35 -.2017 Democratic male 36-55 -.1710 Democratic male 56 plus -.3935 Democratic male Age unknown .6266 Democratic female 18-35 -.2689 Democratic female 36-55 -.0663 Democratic female 56 plus -.3744 Democratic female Age unknown .4686 Independent male 18-35 -.3206 Independent male 36-55 -.2273 Independent male 56 plus -.3327 Independent male Age unknown .4479 Independent female 18-35 -.2907 Independent female 36-55 -.0674 Independent female 56 plus -.3757 Independent female Age unknown .6066 Republican male 18-35 -.1323 Republican male 36-55 -.2631 Republican male 56 plus -.4566 Republican male Age unknown .5558 Republican female 18-35 -.1859 Republican female 36-55 -.1126 Republican female 56 plus -.4264 Republican female Age unknown Breakdown by party and length of registration .5270 Democrat registered in last two years (91-92) .2725 Democrat registered three to four years ago (89-90) -.1276 Democrat registered five to six years ago (87-88) -.1900 Democrat registered seven to eight years ago (85-86) -.2441 Democrat registered more than eight years ago (84 and before) .5344 Republican registered in last two years (91-92) .4109 Republican registered three to four years ago (89-90) -.1029 Republican registered five to six years ago (87-88) -.2429 Republican registered seven to eight years ago (85-86) -.3167 Republican registered more than eight years ago (84 and before)